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Two days to go.

England's first Test in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we look at where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It’s challenging to score runs, right?

Batters on each side of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are even planning to turn up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has focused on the perceived challenge of scoring runs, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, especially against fast bowling, no country has been harder in which to score runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'big three'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

Aside from Boland, other members of the backup squad have performed well.

Michael Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home Test without both key bowlers, and lost, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have won by a combined 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, outcomes have remained strong – England should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners faster than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Since Duckett and Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a factor in Zak Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

Crawley, who famously struck the first ball of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His average rises when the pace increases.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, most likely returning to number three.

Across seven matches in the current year, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's record holds up well compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was introduced, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

The series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have not won since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the tour are the same, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

Perth hosts an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the visitors approach with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the venue for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now not used to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have secured victory in four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India last year.

Every Test at the new ground has been won by the team batting first.

England often overthink day-night matches, when data suggest the pink ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

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